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College Football

Week 8 lookahead: Notre Dame-USC matchup, this time, has magnitude

USC quarterback Sam Darnold

When Notre Dame plays host Saturday night to Southern California it will mark the first time since 2009 that both teams enter the annual matchup nationally ranked, and the first time since 2006 the two rivals meet ranked in the top 15 of The Associated Press poll.

It’s a stunning fact given the names at play, the proud history of the two programs and the annual attention paid to one of college football’s most storied series. But it reveals a truth: USC (No. 10 in the Amway Coaches Poll) and Notre Dame (No. 16 in the coaches poll) might drip with tradition, but the recent history of this rivalry — dating back a generation, give or take — has found each program experience moments of excellence, but rarely simultaneously.

A meeting of this magnitude has been long coming. Rankings aside, there are deep layers to Saturday’s matchup that will trickle through the remainder of the regular season, affecting not only the Trojans and Irish but each of the Power Five conferences.

“I think it's important that our players are aware of the game and the circumstances because that's why they come here,” said Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly. “It's important not to just bury your head in the sand. Be aware of it.”

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The winner will take a leap in the polls — the Irish in particular. To date, the greatest asset on Notre Dame’s résumé is a loss: Georgia’s 20-19 win in South Bend on Sept. 10. More than an impressive win two weeks later against Michigan State, the defeat lent the Irish credibility. The unbeaten Bulldogs have likewise ridden that victory into the thick of the early College Football Playoff race.

Beating the Trojans, meanwhile, would be the firmest indication to date that Notre Dame is a legitimate contender. There already are signs that this is the case: Notre Dame’s defense ranks 20th in the Football Bowl Subdivision in yards allowed per play, and an offense remade behind new coordinator Chip Long ranks fifth in rushing yards per game and third in yards per carry.

But there’s been a wait-and-see approach taken with the Irish — maybe as a logical byproduct of last year’s losing finish. Beating the Trojans would change that.

Patience is in shorter supply at USC. The Trojans were expected to roll out of the gate, continuing the torrid pace started in the second month of last season, and quickly separate themselves from the Pac-12 Conference to stand alongside Alabama, Clemson and the elite upper crust of the FBS. The results have been mixed.

At times, the Trojans are what they were believed to be — a powerful offense led by a sublime sophomore quarterback Sam Darnold; a ferocious defense keyed by its experienced leaders, including linebacker Cameron Smith; and a top-to-bottom powerhouse, with All-America starters bolstered by the roster’s deeper and more coherent second tier. At other times, however, the Trojans have looked lost.

It’s fair to say that outside of one game — the jaw-dropping takedown of Stanford on Sept. 10 — the Trojans have struggled. There have been close calls: Western Michigan, Texas, California and Utah. There’s even been a loss, the 30-27 decision at Washington State made even less bearable with the Cougars’ ensuing meltdown against the Golden Bears.

"As long as we win, I'm not going to complain,” Darnold said. “But yeah, we're 6-1, we're in control of our own destiny right now, and I think we have a really good shot of winning every game from here on out. That's the goal.”

As individual teams, the Irish and Trojans convene Saturday with the same stakes at play: the winner vaults into the Playoff mix while the loser plans for a New Year’s Six bowl at best. And in a sense, both are looking for validation. But there’s more at play.

Coach Brian Kelly and Notre Dame host USC in a key clash in Week 8.

“Look, at the end of the day, we're all going to be judged by wins and losses, and I understand that.” Kelly said, “and I said that from Day 1. But there's a standard of play that we have to live up to. Our players understand that, and that's the most important thing.”

It’s an enormous game for the Pac-12, which saw its credibility take a major hit this past weekend with losses by Washington State and Washington. While not removing the Pac-12 from the title chase — not by a long shot — the weekend’s results did lessen the league’s room for error. The Trojans and Huskies can’t afford another loss. The same can be said for Stanford.

What happens in the Pac-12 ripples through the rest of the Power Five. Though far too early to eliminate individual conferences from the Playoff, it’s clear that happenings in the Pac-12 will affect the rest of the major-conference landscape: USC losing to Notre Dame would remove a prime Pac-12 contender from the mix while providing a little bit of wiggle room for the Big 12, for example.

The SEC doesn’t need the help. Yet there is that question about Georgia, which asks whether the league can realistically place two teams into the four-team field — the other being Alabama, obviously. If the status quo holds across the remaining Power Five leagues, the SEC would likely need both teams to enter the conference title game unbeaten; then it would need a competitive game.

But more than anything, to keep that dream alive demands that Notre Dame not flop in the second half. That begins Saturday. A win by USC doesn’t upset the apple cart as much as maintain the preseason consensus, which held that USC was a true national contender and Notre Dame a moderate January bowl threat. The impact of a win by the Irish, on the other hand, may ripple through the final six weeks of the regular season.

MICHIGAN KEEPS FAITH IN THE DEFENSE

It’s crunch time for Michigan, which entered October with no shortage of question marks — nearly all reserved for the offense — and now, three weeks into the month, begins its make-or-break stretch with a road trip to undefeated Penn State.

The Wolverines’ offensive woes have been well-documented. It’s convenient to pin the blame for the sputtering attack on the recent change at quarterback, with John O’Korn replacing an injured Wilton Speight, but the issues run far deeper than a single position — and predate any personnel change, whether driven by injuries or otherwise.

As we cross the midway point of the regular season, Michigan ranks 87th in the FBS in yards per game, 86th in yards per play, 64th in yards per carry and tied for 120th in touchdown passes. Michigan’s quarterbacks have thrown as many touchdowns as the quarterbacks from Illinois, Florida, Rutgers and UTEP. That’s not good company to keep.

In the general sense, this is the sort of offensive ineptitude that reveals Michigan to be at least one step removed from Playoff contention — even if not yet official, it’s hard to imagine this offense stepping forward to help the Wolverines survive their difficult second-half slate, which includes the Nittany Lions, Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback John O'Korn.

But this defense, run by the nation’s most underrated and overlooked assistant coach in Don Brown, is something else. Ranked second nationally in yards allowed per play and first in yards allowed per game, the defense is unquestionably of a championship caliber. This much is true: In any single game, against almost any single opponent, Michigan’s defense is good enough to lift the Wolverines to victory.

“They're going to solve their problems with aggression,” Penn State coach James Franklin said of the Wolverines’ defense. “They're a big wreck-the-decision-maker (defense), try to get to the quarterback as much as they possibly can and either sack him or make him uncomfortable in the pocket, and don't give any yards away, no free-access throws. That's what he believes. (Brown’s) done a really good job.”

That idea will be put to the test by Penn State’s offense. There’s Saquon Barkley, and everything written about the Nittany Lions’ junior is right on the money — if anything, he’s even better than the numbers suggest. Opponents have keyed on stopping Barkley with mixed results, though Northwestern and Indiana did a fair job.

But the decision to devote resources to stopping the running game has revealed Penn State’s offense to be more than just one star; the Nittany Lions have been able to take advantage with Trace McSorley and the passing game. In its second season under coordinator Joe Moorhead, the offense has become balanced, multidimensional and explosive. It will provide the toughest test to date for Michigan’s defense.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Trace McSorley.

“It’ll be a team effort defensively to go against a great player and really an outstanding offense,” Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh said. “They’re hitting on all cylinders. I think our guys are excited for that task.”

Yet it’s a matchup the Wolverines can win. There are two ways to look at things: Michigan has yet to face an offense of Penn State’s caliber, which is true, but neither has Penn State lined up across a defense this adept at burning down offensive game plans. Something has to give.

Maybe the Wolverines will be motivated by finding their backs to the wall. Losing to Michigan State robbed Michigan of a would-be tiebreaker, not to mention evaporated a portion of the goodwill Harbaugh carried into his third season. Michigan knows the road to a Big Ten title goes one of two ways: either it continues with a win at Penn State or it ends before the final Saturday of October.

“Let’s have at it. Let’s get better each day. Better today than yesterday, better tomorrow than today,” Harbaugh said. “A simple formula. But we thought we’d be good. Coach Brown thought we’d be good, and our players thought we’d be good. And we’re playing good and improving.”

PAULITZER PRIZE

Each week, I’ll take one look back at the weekend that was to present a Paulitzer Prize nomination to the nation’s most impressive player. The selection committee consists of one person — me — and will eventually convene in December to award the ultimate Prize.

Khalil Tate, Arizona. This distinguished honor – named after such a distinguished individual, you know — isn’t reserved for only the best teams in the FBS. Tate has earned some national recognition for his play in the past two weeks: 154 yards passing and 327 yards rushing against Colorado on Oct. 7 and another 148 yards passing and 230 yards on the ground in last weekend’s win against UCLA. Not since Denard Robinson has a quarterback so effortlessly churned out yardage in Rich Rodriguez’s system.

GAMES YOU SHOULDN’T MISS

It’s impossible to watch every game. (I know. I’ve tried.) Until the invention of picture-in-picture-in-picture television technology, I’m here to help. In each time window, here are this Saturday’s games you can’t afford to miss (times Eastern):

Noon: No. 11 Oklahoma State at Texas (ABC). Let’s see how the Longhorns rebound after hanging tough in last week’s loss to Oklahoma.

3:30 p.m.: Tennessee at No. 1 Alabama (CBS). Watch this to see Alabama in action or to see how Tennessee melts down against the best team in the country – your choice.

Prime time: No. 19 Michigan at No. 2 Penn State (7:30 p.m., ABC). USC and Notre Dame might be the best game of the week, but Michigan can upend the top four in the Coaches Poll by beating the Nittany Lions on the road.

After dark: Colorado at No. 18 Washington State (10:45 p.m., ESPN). Written off after just one loss, the Cougars should regain their stride facing off against the Buffaloes at home.

THE ELIMINATION LIST

Many teams across the FBS remain in the hunt for the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately, many have already been eliminated. By conference, here’s who is out of the CFP picture (new additions to this week’s list are underlined):

American: Cincinnati, Connecticut, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa.

ACC: Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia.

Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers.

Conference USA: Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Old Dominion, Rice, Southern Mississippi, Texas-San Antonio, UAB, UTEP, Western Kentucky.

Independents: Army, Brigham Young, UMass.

MAC: Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (Ohio), Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan.

Mountain West: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming.

Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Utah.

SEC: Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt.

Sun Belt: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Idaho, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy.

 

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